1. Fuel Debt
NDVI departure from rolling baseline for cumulative drying trajectory.
What It Changes
Existing systems typically activate after ignition. Embera is designed to move warning posture from roughly 60-90 minutes after ignition to 3-5 days of pre-ignition intelligence where resources, messaging, and evacuation readiness can be staged before impact.
- Days 7-5: Strategic Watch from fuel debt, live moisture stress, and 500mb pattern setup.
- Days 3-2: Tactical Warning with HDW, terrain-amplified wind fields, and ignition corridor risk.
- Day 1: Critical Alert when all layers converge with community-specific evacuation feasibility.
7-Layer System
One backend stack, published as ArcGIS Image/Feature/GP services.
2. Live Fuel Moisture
LFMC trajectories calibrated with station observations.
3A/3B. Compound Trigger
Strategic 5-7 day atmospheric detection plus 0-72 hour operational trigger.
4. Wind Field
Terrain-amplified downscaling for canyon and foothill exposure.
5. Ignition Probability
ML ignition likelihood using utility corridors, slope, history, and vegetation.
6/7. Vulnerability + Impact
Population exposure, evacuation feasibility, burn envelopes, and triage outputs.
Dashboard Snapshots
Reference views from current operations and prototype mapping interfaces.
Build Plan
From retrospective validation to live pilot operations.
| Phase | Timeline | Deliverable |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Weeks 1-4 | LA Basin Fuel Debt retrospective published as live Image Service. |
| 1 | Weeks 5-10 | Layers 1-3+5 retrospective replay for January 2025 events. |
| 2 | Months 3-6 | Multi-event validation, Layer 6 vulnerability, Layer 7 Monte Carlo. |
| 3 | Months 6-10 | Automated real-time pipeline and four ArcGIS operator views. |
| 4 | Months 10-15 | Pilot deployment with county OES/CAL FIRE unit for one season. |
Current status: Phase 1 development with retrospective validation. Embera is decision-support software,
not incident command authority.